For expats and immigrants living in Berlin, local elections are never just political background noise. The parties that gain ground — and the ones that shape the public debate — directly influence the tone and direction of policies on housing, integration, and immigration. The upcoming Berlin state election features Kristin Brinker standing as the AfD's top candidate for the third time, and the party is expected to increase its vote share. Understanding what that means — and, importantly, what it does not mean — is essential for anyone building a life in the German capital.
Kristin Brinker is a familiar face in Berlin politics. Standing as the AfD's Spitzenkandidatin for the third consecutive time, she leads a party that is polling for stronger results than in previous elections. According to Tagesschau reporting, the AfD can expect gains in this vote.
However, electoral strength does not automatically translate into political power. The AfD's growth in Berlin takes place within a political landscape where every other significant party has ruled out forming a coalition with them. Without a coalition partner, the AfD cannot enter government regardless of how many votes it wins. Brinker's candidacy is therefore described as one without realistic governing prospects.
Even without entering government, a stronger AfD result carries real consequences for the political environment in Berlin and across Germany. A larger vote share increases the party's presence in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus (state parliament), giving it more seats, more speaking time, and a louder platform to push its positions — which include significantly tighter immigration and asylum policies.
For expats and immigrants, this matters in several ways. A stronger far-right opposition can pull the political centre of gravity on immigration debates, sometimes prompting mainstream parties to adopt stricter positions in order to compete for voters. It can also affect the everyday social climate, with research consistently linking the rise of far-right parties to increases in reported discrimination and anxiety among minority communities.
At the same time, the coalition block means that Berlin's next governing administration will be formed by parties that have explicitly distanced themselves from the AfD's platform. The city's actual policies on immigration, integration support, and residents' rights will be set by whichever coalition comes to power.
It is important to separate electoral results from changes to your legal status or rights. Residence permits, work authorisation, access to social services, and the rules around Anmeldung and Einbürgerung are governed primarily by federal law and, in some areas, EU law — not by Berlin's state government alone. A shift in Berlin's state parliament composition does not directly rewrite those frameworks.
That said, state governments do have influence over how integration programmes are resourced and delivered, how the Ausländerbehörde is staffed and funded, and the general political messaging directed at immigrant communities. These indirect effects are worth monitoring over time.
No. Your Aufenthaltstitel, visa conditions, and residency rights are determined by federal law — primarily the Aufenthaltsgesetz — and by EU regulations where applicable. A state election result in Berlin does not alter those legal frameworks. If you have concerns about your specific situation, consult your Ausländerbehörde or a qualified immigration lawyer.
The rise of any far-right party in electoral polls can contribute to a more hostile public climate for visible minorities and immigrants. If you experience discrimination or a hate incident in Berlin, organisations such as the Antidiskriminierungsstelle des Bundes (Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency) exist to support affected individuals — look up their official contact details directly. Document incidents carefully and seek advice from a support organisation or legal professional if needed.
The AfD's expected growth in the Berlin election is a development that the expat and immigrant community should be aware of, even if its immediate legal impact is limited by the coalition block other parties have erected. The political climate, public debate, and long-term policy direction on integration and immigration can all be shaped by election results — so staying informed matters.
Watch for post-election coalition negotiations to understand who will actually govern Berlin and what priorities they set. If you have concerns about your rights or status, the most reliable step is always to consult your Ausländerbehörde or a registered immigration lawyer rather than drawing conclusions from election headlines alone.
Source: Tagesschau
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