For years, the idea of the AfD leading a German government was widely dismissed as unthinkable. Today, according to extremism researcher Quent, it is being discussed as a genuine possibility. In a recent interview, Quent examined the forces fuelling the party's growth — not only in its traditional strongholds in eastern Germany, but increasingly in western states as well. For immigrants, expats, and anyone who has made Germany their home, understanding this political shift is more than an academic exercise. The AfD's platform has consistently included hardline positions on immigration, asylum, and the rights of non-German residents. A stronger AfD — in opposition or in government — shapes the policy debate, the public mood, and, potentially, the lived experience of foreigners in Germany.
According to extremism researcher Quent, the AfD's rise is not happening by accident. The party has successfully tapped into anxieties about economic change, cultural identity, and a perceived loss of political control. These concerns are not confined to one region or one demographic. Quent notes that the AfD is gaining ground in western German states — a development that marks a significant shift from the party's earlier geographic base in the east.
The reasons are multiple and overlapping. Dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, frustration over housing costs and living standards, and debates about migration have all created fertile ground. The AfD has positioned itself as the loudest voice against what it frames as an overly permissive immigration policy, and that message is resonating with a broader slice of the electorate than before.
It is important to note that Quent's analysis attributes these trends to structural and social factors — not to any inherent merit in the AfD's policy proposals. As an extremism researcher, his framing is analytical, not endorsing.
The AfD's growth matters directly for people who have moved to Germany or are planning to do so. The party has repeatedly called for tighter restrictions on immigration and asylum, and has proposed measures that would affect residence rights, integration programmes, and pathways to citizenship.
Even when the AfD is not in government, its rising vote share shifts the political centre of gravity. Other parties have already begun adjusting their language and policies on migration in response to electoral pressure. This means that even under coalition governments that exclude the AfD, the broader political climate around immigration is changing.
For expats on skilled-worker visas, Blue Card holders, and long-term residents pursuing Niederlassungserlaubnis or Einbürgerung, policy stability matters enormously. While existing residence permits and legal rights are determined by law, the legislative environment can shift — and following political developments is part of staying informed.
For refugees and asylum seekers, the stakes feel even more immediate. The AfD has consistently advocated for stricter asylum procedures and increased deportations. Even as a strong opposition party, it places pressure on coalition governments to tighten rules.
One of the more striking points in Quent's analysis is the AfD's expanding footprint in western German states. Previously, the party's strongest results came from states in the former East Germany — a pattern often explained through the specific post-reunification economic and social history of those regions.
The fact that the party is now growing in western states suggests that its appeal is becoming more broadly national. This is significant for expats, who are disproportionately concentrated in western cities like Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, and Stuttgart. A stronger AfD presence in those regions means the party's rhetoric and influence are closer to home for many in the immigrant and expat community.
Your current residence permit or visa status is governed by existing German law, not by election results. However, immigration law can change through legislation, and political pressure from a growing AfD can influence policy decisions made by ruling coalitions. It is worth staying informed about proposed legislative changes and consulting a qualified immigration lawyer or your Ausländerbehörde if you have specific concerns about your status.
Naturalisation rules in Germany are set by federal law. Any changes require a parliamentary majority. While the AfD advocates for stricter naturalisation criteria, it is currently not in the federal government. That said, the political debate around citizenship requirements has been active, and rules have been revised in recent years. If you are planning to apply for Einbürgerung, checking current eligibility criteria with your local authority or a legal adviser is always a sensible step.
Reputable German news sources such as Tagesschau, Der Spiegel, and the Deutsche Welle English service cover immigration policy debates in detail. Organisations that support migrants' rights in Germany also publish updates when legislative proposals could affect residents. BAMF (the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees) publishes official information about changes to immigration and asylum law.
The AfD's growing strength is a political reality that the expat and immigrant community in Germany cannot afford to ignore. Researcher Quent's analysis makes clear that this is a structural trend with roots in economic anxiety and cultural politics — and that it is spreading beyond its traditional regional base.
For those living in Germany as foreigners, the most practical response is to stay informed, know your current rights under existing law, and engage with credible organisations that monitor and advocate on immigration policy. If you have specific concerns about how political changes might affect your residence status, visa, or citizenship application, consult a qualified immigration lawyer or contact your Ausländerbehörde directly.
Source: tagesschau
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