All eyes in Germany are on Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been polling around 40 percent ahead of a state election. For expats and immigrants living in Germany, this is more than a regional political story. The AfD has long championed some of the most restrictive immigration positions in German mainstream politics, and the prospect of the party — officially classified as 'extremist' by domestic intelligence services — leading a state government for the first time has sparked serious debate about what this could mean for the country's direction.
Experts consulted by The Local are now asking whether such an outcome is legally and politically feasible, and what practical consequences it might carry for foreigners living in Germany.
Polling around 40 percent in Saxony-Anhalt would make the AfD by far the largest party in the state parliament. In Germany's proportional voting system, that does not automatically hand a party the government — coalition-building is required. However, the scale of the AfD's lead has forced political commentators and legal experts to confront a question that previously seemed hypothetical: could the AfD actually lead a state government?
The difficulty lies in the so-called 'firewall' maintained by Germany's mainstream parties. The CDU, SPD, Greens and others have consistently ruled out forming coalitions with the AfD at both federal and state level. If that firewall holds in Saxony-Anhalt, other parties would need to form a workable majority without the AfD — even if the AfD wins the most seats. Whether such a majority is mathematically possible depends on the final results.
Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Verfassungsschutz, has classified the AfD as a proven extremist organisation. This designation is not merely symbolic. It allows intelligence services to monitor the party more closely and has implications for public servants who are members. Experts are divided on whether this classification alone would legally prevent the AfD from entering government, since party membership is not automatically disqualifying for office in Germany's constitutional framework.
For immigrants and expats, the extremist label matters for a different reason: it signals the kind of political environment in which debates about immigration, integration and foreigners' rights are taking place. The AfD's platform has consistently called for stricter immigration controls, limits on asylum, and measures that critics argue would make life harder for non-EU nationals in particular.
State governments in Germany have real powers that affect immigrants' daily lives. They oversee the implementation of federal immigration law through state-level Ausländerbehörde offices, manage refugee accommodation and integration programmes, and set priorities for law enforcement. A state government influenced by or led by the AfD could, within its legal competence, choose to take a stricter approach to enforcement, reduce funding for integration services, or use its position in the Bundesrat (Germany's upper chamber, where states are represented) to push for tighter national immigration policy.
It is important to note that federal law — including EU law — remains supreme, and no state government can unilaterally strip rights that are guaranteed at the federal or EU level. However, the tone, priorities and day-to-day implementation of policies can shift considerably depending on who is in government at the state level.
Residence permits and visas are governed by federal law, which state governments cannot override. Your Aufenthaltstitel is issued under the Aufenthaltsgesetz, a federal statute. However, the Ausländerbehörde that processes your paperwork operates at the local and state level, and shifts in political priorities can affect wait times, discretionary decisions and the overall experience of dealing with authorities. If you have concerns specific to your situation, consulting an immigration lawyer is the safest course of action.
According to experts, the extremist classification by the Verfassungsschutz does not automatically bar a party from participating in government under Germany's current legal framework. Whether the AfD could form a government in practice depends on whether other parties are willing to enter coalition talks — and so far, mainstream parties have refused. The situation remains fluid and will depend on the final election result.
This is a question only you can assess based on your own circumstances. Civil society organisations working on anti-discrimination and migrant rights are active across Germany. If you experience discrimination or a hate incident, organisations such as the Antidiskriminierungsstelle des Bundes (Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency) exist to support you — look up their official contact details directly.
The Saxony-Anhalt election is a political moment with real implications for how Germany's debate about immigration, integration and the rights of foreigners develops. While no state government can remove federally guaranteed rights, shifts in political leadership at the state level can affect how policies are implemented in practice.
If you live in or near Saxony-Anhalt, it is worth staying informed about the election outcome and monitoring any announced policy changes that could affect integration services or local enforcement priorities. For personalised guidance on how your specific residence status or rights might be affected, consult a qualified immigration lawyer or contact your local Ausländerbehörde.
Source: The Local
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