AfD Could Lead Its First German State: What It Means for Expats

Introduction

Germany's political landscape has been shifting steadily eastward in terms of far-right electoral strength, and Saxony-Anhalt is now in focus as the state that could break new political ground: becoming the first German federal state (Bundesland) to be led by the Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD. For the expat and immigrant community across Germany, this is more than a regional story. A first AfD state government would test how much power a far-right administration can exercise over immigration-related services, integration programmes, and the environment for foreign nationals — and it would set a precedent for other eastern states watching closely.

What Is Saxony-Anhalt and Why Does It Matter?

Saxony-Anhalt is a predominantly rural state in eastern Germany with a population of around 2.1 million. It has faced decades of economic stagnation, population decline, and youth emigration since reunification. Structurally, it is one of Germany's weakest states by GDP per capita, and it has a much lower proportion of foreign nationals than western German states.

These structural conditions have historically correlated with stronger far-right voting patterns in the east, and the AfD has consistently polled at or near the top in Saxony-Anhalt. While the CDU currently leads the state government, future elections could shift the balance. The question analysts are asking is not if the AfD will be in a position to attempt to lead a German state, but when — and Saxony-Anhalt is the most frequently named candidate.

What Powers Does a State Government Have Over Immigration?

In Germany, immigration law — including visa categories, residence permits (Aufenthaltstitel), and naturalisation (Einbürgerung) requirements — is set at the federal level. The Ausländerbehörde in each city operates under national law, so an AfD state government could not simply cancel existing permits or change federal rules.

However, state governments have meaningful discretion in several areas that directly affect the quality of life for immigrants and refugees:

• Refugee accommodation: States decide how asylum seekers are housed, in what conditions, and in which locations (central camps vs. decentralised flats).
• Integration services: Funding for language classes, counselling, and social support beyond the federal Integrationskurs is largely a state and municipal responsibility.
• Police priorities: State-level policing policy influences how aggressively anti-discrimination laws are enforced and how racially motivated incidents are investigated.
• Public sector hiring: State governments influence hiring in schools, public administration, and social services — which affects access to services for non-German speakers.
• Education policy: School integration support, multilingual education programmes, and welcome classes (Willkommensklassen) for newly arrived children are state-managed.

An AfD-led state government would be expected to cut spending on many of these programmes and adopt a significantly more restrictive posture toward asylum seekers and newly arrived migrants.

What Has the AfD Said About Immigration?

The AfD's national platform calls for a fundamental reversal of German immigration policy, including the mass deportation of individuals without secure status, an end to family reunification for refugees, and the dismantling of what the party describes as a "migration industry" of NGOs and state-funded support services. At the state level, AfD politicians in Saxony-Anhalt have consistently advocated for reducing integration spending and taking a harder line on rejected asylum seekers.

It is worth noting that the AfD is currently classified by Germany's domestic intelligence service (Verfassungsschutz) as a "confirmed extremist organisation" — a designation that reflects concerns about the party's compatibility with Germany's constitutional order (Grundgesetz).

What Does This Mean for Expats Outside Saxony-Anhalt?

For expats living in other German states, the immediate practical impact of an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt would be limited. Federal law continues to govern your residence rights, work permits, and access to core social services. However, there are broader implications:

• Political signal: A successful AfD state government would dramatically increase the party's national credibility and momentum ahead of future elections in other states (Thuringia and Brandenburg are also closely watched).
• Policy precedent: If the AfD demonstrates it can govern a state, other parties may feel pressure to shift their own immigration positions further to the right to compete — a dynamic already observed in parts of German national politics.
• Social climate: Increased far-right political normalisation can affect the everyday social environment for people who are visibly foreign, even in states where the AfD is not in government.

Frequently Asked Questions

Could an AfD state government affect my residence permit or work visa?

No — not directly. Residence permits and work visas are governed by federal law (Aufenthaltsgesetz). Your Aufenthaltstitel is issued under national rules that a state government cannot unilaterally override. However, if the AfD gains federal power in the future, national immigration law could change — that is the longer-term risk to monitor.

I live in Saxony-Anhalt. Should I be worried?

Your legal status under existing federal law remains protected regardless of which party governs the state. However, in practical terms — access to integration services, the social environment, and responsiveness of local authorities — conditions for immigrants in an AfD-governed state could become noticeably less supportive. Staying connected with local migrant community organisations and knowing your rights is advisable. Organisations such as the Migrationsberatung für erwachsene Zuwanderer (MBE) provide free advice.

How soon could this happen?

Saxony-Anhalt's next state election (Landtagswahl) is scheduled for 2026. The current government is CDU-led. Whether the AfD can form a government depends on whether other parties maintain their current position of refusing coalition talks with the AfD — a position that has held so far but is subject to ongoing political pressure.

Conclusion and Next Steps

An AfD-led state government in Saxony-Anhalt remains a possibility rather than a certainty, and any such development is still at least a year away. For most expats in Germany, the immediate impact on daily paperwork and legal status would be limited. But the political trajectory matters — both for the social environment in Germany and for the long-term direction of national immigration policy. Stay informed, know your rights, and connect with local migrant support organisations in your area. For official information on your residence rights, always refer to the BAMF website at bamf.de.

Source: DW English