AfD State Premier: What It Could Mean for Immigrants in Germany

Introduction

A recent survey has found that the majority of people in Germany expect the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party to take the position of state premier (Ministerpräsident) in at least one German federal state following elections scheduled for autumn. While no vote has yet been cast, public expectation alone signals a notable shift in Germany's political landscape. For the country's millions of immigrants and expats, this matters: state governments hold significant power over how immigration law is applied, how integration programmes are funded, and how regional Ausländerbehörde offices operate day to day.

What the Survey Shows

The poll, reported by DW English, indicates that a majority of German residents now consider it likely that the AfD will achieve a governing role at the state level for the first time. The AfD has so far been excluded from coalition governments through an informal agreement among mainstream parties — sometimes called the "firewall" (Brandmauer). However, growing electoral support, particularly in eastern German states such as Thuringia and Saxony, is testing how long that barrier can hold.

It is important to note that the survey reflects public expectation, not a confirmed electoral outcome. Elections in several German states are due in 2025 and beyond, and coalition negotiations could still result in AfD remaining in opposition.

Why This Matters for Expats and Immigrants

German states (Länder) are not just administrative regions — they have real authority over areas that directly affect foreigners living in Germany. Regional governments influence:

• Ausländerbehörde operations: Processing times, internal guidelines, and staffing levels at local immigration authorities are shaped by state priorities and budgets.
• Integration programmes: Funding for Integrationskurs offerings, language support, and social services can vary significantly depending on which party controls the state.
• Police and deportation enforcement: States manage their own police forces and have a degree of control over how federal deportation orders are prioritised and carried out.
• Education access: Rules around schooling for children of asylum seekers and migrants are partly set at state level.

The AfD has consistently campaigned on stricter immigration enforcement, significantly reducing asylum admissions, and scaling back integration spending. If the party were to lead a state government, policy changes in these areas — even if limited by federal law — could create meaningful differences in the day-to-day experience of immigrants in that state.

What Could Realistically Change?

It is worth being clear about what a state premier can and cannot do. Germany's Basic Law (Grundgesetz) places core immigration law at the federal level. A state premier cannot unilaterally change the rules for residence permits, Niederlassungserlaubnis, or Einbürgerung. Federal law sets the framework.

However, a state-level AfD government could:

• Slow or redirect Integrationskurs funding within state-administered budgets
• Apply pressure on local Ausländerbehörde offices to apply stricter interpretations of existing rules
• Reduce state-funded social support for refugees and asylum seekers beyond the federal minimum
• Shift the political tone in ways that embolden local discrimination or reduce institutional support for diversity initiatives

For expats on stable work visas or Blue Cards with solid employment, day-to-day impact may be limited in the short term. For asylum seekers, refugees, or those in precarious permit situations, the stakes are higher.

The Broader Political Context

Germany held federal elections in early 2025, and the new coalition government has already signalled a tougher stance on migration at the national level. State-level AfD influence, if it materialises, would compound this shift rather than introduce it from scratch. Observers note that even the threat of AfD electoral success has already pushed mainstream parties to adopt stricter migration rhetoric and policy.

For immigrants in Germany, this is a moment to stay informed, understand your rights, and know which official channels to contact if you encounter problems with your paperwork or residence status.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can an AfD state premier change my visa or residence permit rules?

No. The core legal framework for visas, Aufenthaltstitel, and Niederlassungserlaubnis is set by federal law. A state premier cannot unilaterally rewrite those rules. However, they can influence how local authorities implement and prioritise those rules, which may affect processing times and the tone of interactions with regional Ausländerbehörde offices.

Which states are most likely to see AfD electoral gains?

Eastern German states — particularly Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg — have consistently shown the highest AfD support in polls. Autumn 2025 elections in these regions are being closely watched. Western states have lower AfD polling numbers, though the party has grown there too.

What should I do if I feel my rights are being violated by an immigration authority?

You have the right to seek legal advice. Contact a recognised immigration lawyer (Fachanwalt für Ausländerrecht), a local Migrationsberatung service, or organisations such as the Diakonie or Caritas that offer free counselling. BAMF also publishes official guidance on your rights during administrative procedures.

Does this affect EU citizens living in Germany?

EU citizens have freedom of movement rights guaranteed by EU law, which no German state government can override. However, political climate shifts can still affect the social environment and access to services. Non-EU nationals are more directly exposed to any changes in state-level immigration enforcement priorities.

Conclusion and Next Steps

No AfD state premier exists yet, and the autumn elections will determine whether public expectation becomes reality. But for expats and immigrants in Germany, now is a good time to review your current permit status, understand your rights, and identify local support organisations in your area. Staying informed through reliable sources — and knowing who to contact if problems arise — is your best preparation regardless of how the political situation evolves.

Source: DW English