Berlin is heading into an election, and the latest pre-election poll from ARD suggests it could be a very close race. Die Linke is shown narrowly ahead of the CDU, while the BSW party would reportedly not cross the threshold required to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus — Berlin's state parliament. For the large expat and immigrant community in Germany's capital, who wins this election and what coalition forms in the aftermath could have real consequences for housing policy, integration programmes, public services, and the general political atmosphere in the city.
According to the ARD pre-election survey, Die Linke holds a slim lead over the CDU in Berlin. The margin is described as very tight, meaning the final result could go either way. BSW — a newer political party — is shown falling short of the threshold needed to win seats in the Berlin parliament.
Pre-election polls are snapshots of opinion at a given moment and do not predict the final result. In a race this close, turnout, last-minute shifts in voter preferences, and the performance of smaller parties can all influence the outcome significantly.
Berlin is home to one of Germany's most diverse international communities. The policies of the city government touch on many aspects of expat life — from the speed and capacity of the Ausländerbehörde to the availability of affordable housing, integration courses, and social support.
A CDU-led senate would likely take a more conservative approach on issues such as migration policy, public spending, and housing regulation. A government led by or including Die Linke would generally be expected to favour stronger tenant protections, more generous social services, and a more welcoming stance on migration — though the specifics depend on any coalition agreement that emerges.
Neither outcome should be treated as a guarantee of any particular policy direction; coalition negotiations in Berlin have historically been complex and involve significant compromise.
For expats in Berlin, a few policy areas stand out as particularly election-sensitive. Housing remains one of the most acute challenges in the city, with rents rising steadily and competition for apartments intense. Different parties hold very different positions on rent regulation, the construction of new social housing, and tenant rights.
Integration support — including the availability of Integrationskurs places, language learning resources, and support for newly arrived immigrants — is another area shaped by state-level political decisions. The Berlin senate also influences how well-resourced and efficient the Ausländerbehörde is, which has a very direct impact on expats navigating residence permits and paperwork.
In German state and federal elections, only German citizens are eligible to vote. EU citizens living in Berlin can vote in European Parliament elections and in some local elections, but not in state (Abgeordnetenhaus) elections. If you are interested in civic participation, check with your local registration office about what elections you are eligible to participate in based on your nationality and residency status.
Election results are typically known on election night, but forming a governing coalition usually takes weeks or months of negotiation. During this period, the outgoing senate continues to manage the city's day-to-day affairs. Major policy changes would only come into effect once a new coalition agreement is signed and a new senate is formally in office.
The Berlin election looks set to be closely fought, and the outcome will shape city policy in areas that directly affect expats — from housing to integration services to the Ausländerbehörde. Stay informed by following Berlin political news as the election approaches. If you have pending residency or permit matters with Berlin's Ausländerbehörde, it is sensible to progress them without waiting for post-election policy shifts.
Source: tagesschau
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