
Germany Politics 2025: Merz Poll and AfD Euro-Schengen Exit Plans
Most German voters doubt Merz will finish his term, and the AfD says it would leave the euro and Schengen. Here's what that means for expats.

If you live in Germany as a foreigner, you have probably heard about the AfD — the Alternative für Deutschland party. Parts of it are officially classified as right-wing extremist by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Verfassungsschutz. What you may be less familiar with is the "political firewall" (Brandmauer) that Germany's centrist parties have erected against it — and why the cracks now appearing in that firewall matter directly to you.
The firewall is a formal, cross-party agreement among the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and FDP to refuse any legislative cooperation or coalition agreement with the AfD. It has held at the federal level, but it is being tested in ways that could reshape German politics — and with it, the legal and social environment for immigrants and expats.
The firewall emerged as a deliberate response to the AfD's rise. The party has pushed for policies that include strict limits on immigration, reductions in benefits for asylum seekers, and — as its leadership has recently stated — even leaving the Schengen zone. Portions of the party's regional branches have been officially classified as "proven right-wing extremist" by German intelligence.
By refusing any cooperation, centrist parties aimed to prevent the AfD from gaining political legitimacy and from pushing its agenda into legislation. The principle is simple: no votes that rely on AfD support, no coalition arrangements, no joint committee majorities.
For expats and immigrants, this matters enormously. The AfD's policy platform, if ever implemented, would tighten immigration rules, reduce integration funding, and potentially create a more hostile legal environment for foreigners. The firewall is one of the main structural reasons those policies have not become law.
The pressure is coming from several directions. First, the AfD continues to poll strongly — in some eastern German states it is the leading party. Second, some politicians within the CDU have argued that an absolute refusal to work with the AfD makes it harder to form functional regional governments and leaves voters feeling ignored.
In the Bundestag, the Merz government has already faced accusations of using AfD votes to pass immigration-related motions — a move that sparked significant controversy and was widely described as a breach of the firewall's spirit, even if not its formal letter. This episode showed that the line between "refusing cooperation" and "benefiting from AfD votes" is blurring.
At the state (Länder) level, governing without AfD cooperation is increasingly difficult in regions where the party commands 25-35% of the vote. The firewall is far more intact at the federal level than in some eastern states.
For people living in Germany on a residence permit, the firewall's integrity affects several concrete areas:
Integration policy: Funding for Integrationskurse, language programs, and social services is partly a political choice. A government that depends on AfD tolerance to survive is less likely to invest in integration infrastructure.
Immigration law: Changes to the Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz, family reunification rules, and asylum procedures all flow through the Bundestag. A weakened firewall increases the risk that AfD-aligned amendments make it into otherwise centrist legislation.
Social climate: Beyond law, political rhetoric shapes everyday experience. A stronger AfD presence in mainstream politics correlates with increases in reported discrimination and hostility toward visible minorities and foreigners. Organizations like the Antidiskriminierungsstelle (Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency) have documented this link.
Einbürgerung timelines: Citizenship law was recently liberalized — dual citizenship is now possible in more cases. A future government under AfD influence would likely seek to reverse or restrict those gains.
No. The AfD is in opposition at the federal level. The current government is led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the CDU. The AfD has no ministers and holds no executive power at the national level. However, it is represented in the Bundestag and several state parliaments.
A full collapse at the federal level is unlikely in the short term — the CDU, SPD, Greens, and FDP all maintain the formal policy. However, the firewall can erode gradually through procedural decisions, regional exceptions, and the normalization of AfD rhetoric in public debate. Expats should watch for those gradual shifts rather than expecting a sudden change.
The Antidiskriminierungsstelle des Bundes (Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency) offers free counseling and support for people who experience discrimination in Germany. BAMF also has resources related to integration and rights. If you face threats or hate crimes, contact local police and document everything.
The firewall is holding at the federal level, but it is under real and growing pressure. For expats and immigrants, staying informed about German domestic politics is not just an intellectual exercise — it is practical self-interest. Monitor credible German and English-language news sources, know your rights, and ensure your residence documents are always current so that any future policy shifts give you maximum legal standing.
Source: DW English
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