Germany's political landscape is shifting — and for the country's millions of expats and immigrants, that shift matters. The latest opinion polls show that far-right parties are continuing to gain ground, even as Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition government claims some foreign policy wins. For people living in Germany on residence permits, working visas, or in the middle of naturalization processes, changes in the political balance can have real consequences — on immigration law, on integration programs, and on the everyday social climate. This article breaks down what the polls are showing, what it means in practice, and what expats should be aware of.
Recent polling data indicates that Merz's coalition — formed after the February 2025 federal election — is struggling to consolidate public support. While the chancellor has pointed to progress on the international stage, including outcomes from the G7 summit, domestic approval figures tell a more complicated story.
Far-right parties, most notably the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), continue to poll strongly, particularly in eastern German states. Some surveys have placed the AfD at or near the top of national polling charts for sustained periods — a development that political analysts describe as a structural shift rather than a temporary spike.
For the governing coalition, this creates a difficult dynamic: any policy seen as too soft on immigration risks losing voters to the far right, while overly restrictive measures risk alienating more centrist and progressive voters.
The political pressure from far-right gains has already influenced the policy agenda. Since taking office, the Merz government has introduced stricter border controls, tightened rules around irregular migration, and signaled a tougher overall stance on asylum and residence issues.
Key areas to watch include:
It is important to note: laws that have already passed remain in force until formally changed. Current rights are not automatically affected by polling numbers.
Beyond legal changes, the rise of far-right rhetoric in mainstream political debate affects the everyday experience of people who look or sound different from the majority population. Reports of discrimination and racist incidents have been tracked by organizations such as the Amadeu Antonio Stiftung and the Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency (Antidiskriminierungsstelle des Bundes).
For expats — especially those from non-European backgrounds — this is a real dimension of life in Germany that deserves honest acknowledgment. Many expats report that political news cycles around migration can affect their sense of belonging, even if their legal status is entirely secure.
If you experience discrimination, the Antidiskriminierungsstelle des Bundes offers free advice and support at antidiskriminierungsstelle.de.
No — your current Aufenthaltstitel remains valid under the terms it was issued, regardless of political changes. Laws must be formally amended through parliament before any change affects existing permit holders. However, if you are applying for a new permit, extending one, or beginning the Einbürgerung process, new rules introduced by the current government may apply to your case.
The AfD is currently classified as a proven right-wing extremist organization by Germany's domestic intelligence agency (Verfassungsschutz), which has legal implications for the party itself but does not directly restrict the rights of residents. Polls showing strong AfD support reflect voter sentiment, not current law. That said, their policy platform — which includes positions on reversing dual citizenship and significantly restricting immigration — is worth understanding, as it influences the broader political debate. Staying informed is always worthwhile.
Germany's political situation is evolving, and the far-right's continued polling strength is a factor that expats and immigrants cannot ignore. It does not mean your rights are in immediate danger — but it does mean staying informed is more important than ever. Follow credible German news sources, keep your documents up to date, and if you are eligible for Einbürgerung, consider whether now is a good time to begin that process while the current rules are in place.
For legal advice specific to your situation, consult a qualified immigration lawyer (Fachanwalt für Ausländerrecht) or a recognized migration advice center (Migrationsberatung).
Source: The Local
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