German politics rarely moves slowly, and two developments this week are worth watching closely if you live in Germany as a foreigner. First, a new poll suggests that most German voters do not expect Chancellor Friedrich Merz to serve a full term through to the 2029 federal election. Second, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel publicly stated that her party would take Germany out of the euro currency and the Schengen free-movement zone if the AfD ever formed a government. Neither scenario is immediate, but both carry real implications for the legal, economic, and everyday environment that expats depend on.
Polling data showing low confidence in a chancellor's longevity does not mean a government will fall tomorrow. However, it does signal a fragile political mandate. For expats, a politically weakened government is less likely to push through ambitious immigration reforms or integration investments. Pending legislation — such as updates to the Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz (Skilled Immigration Act) or adjustments to Bürgergeld — could stall or be revised if the coalition faces internal pressure or early elections.
If Germany were to head toward snap elections before 2029, that would trigger a caretaker government period during which major policy decisions are typically frozen. Residence permit renewals, citizenship applications (Einbürgerung), and Ausländerbehörde processing times could all be affected by administrative uncertainty during such a transition.
The more immediately striking statement came from the AfD. Co-leader Alice Weidel said the party would lead Germany out of both the euro and the Schengen Agreement. It is important to be clear: the AfD is currently in opposition, and no such policy is being implemented. However, the statement matters for several reasons.
Euro exit: If Germany were ever to leave the eurozone — a legally and economically complex process — it would trigger significant financial turbulence. Salaries, savings, rents, and prices could all be disrupted during a currency transition. For expats sending money home or holding euro-denominated contracts, this would create real financial risk.
Schengen exit: This would be even more immediately disruptive for daily life. Schengen allows passport-free travel across 27 European countries. An exit would mean border controls returning between Germany and neighboring countries like France, the Netherlands, Austria, and Poland. EU citizens currently living in Germany under freedom-of-movement rights could face new residence requirements. Non-EU expats who use Schengen for travel would also see their mobility restricted.
Again, these are policy proposals from an opposition party that is legally classified in part as right-wing extremist by German domestic intelligence (Verfassungsschutz). They are not current law. But they reflect the direction the AfD would push Germany, and that is relevant context for anyone planning long-term residence here.
Germany's centrist parties — CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and FDP — maintain a formal "firewall" (Brandmauer) rejecting any coalition or legislative cooperation with the AfD. This policy is under increasing pressure as the AfD polls strongly in several regions. The durability of that firewall will shape whether proposals like leaving Schengen ever move from rhetoric to the legislative agenda.
For expats, the firewall is one of the key structural protections keeping extreme immigration restriction policies off the table. Monitoring its strength is a practical interest, not just a political one.
Leaving Schengen would require a complex legal and political process. Germany is a founding participant in the Schengen system, and an exit would require renegotiating treaties with the EU and neighboring states. It is not something that could happen quickly even if a future government wanted it. However, temporary border controls — which Germany has already introduced at some borders — are legally possible under existing Schengen rules and have been used in recent years.
Your current Aufenthaltstitel remains valid regardless of political changes. Permits are legal documents governed by existing law, and they are not revoked simply because of elections or government changes. However, processing times at the Ausländerbehörde can slow down during periods of administrative uncertainty, so it is always wise to start renewal applications early.
The AfD's proposals on the euro and Schengen are not current policy and would face enormous legal and political obstacles. Staying informed is sensible, but there is no immediate action required based on these statements alone. If the political situation changes materially, Deutschland4U will update you.
Now is a good time to make sure your residence documents are current and that you are aware of any pending legislation that could affect your status. Follow reliable news sources on German politics, and consult a qualified immigration lawyer or your Ausländerbehörde if you have specific concerns about how political changes could affect your permit or citizenship application.
Source: DW English
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