Germany Rail Competition: Cities Risk Losing Direct Train Routes

Introduction

Germany has long prided itself on its rail network, and for many expats, the train is the go-to option for commuting, weekend travel, and staying connected across the country. But a new warning from the railway union EVG (Eisenbahn- und Verkehrsgewerkschaft) suggests that increased competition on Germany's busiest train corridors could actually lead to fewer choices for passengers — not more. If a new market entrant focuses only on the most profitable routes, Deutsche Bahn may respond by cutting direct connections on less lucrative lines. For anyone living in a mid-sized German city or commuting long distances, this is worth paying attention to.

What the EVG Study Found

The EVG study examined what would happen if a competitor began operating on Germany's highest-traffic long-distance rail corridors — the routes that are most commercially attractive, such as those connecting major hubs like Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, and Frankfurt. The union's analysis suggests that a new operator would likely cherry-pick these routes, drawing away passengers and revenue from Deutsche Bahn.

In response, Deutsche Bahn could be forced to scale back or eliminate direct connections to cities that are less commercially viable. The result: passengers in those cities would face longer journey times, more transfers, or reduced frequency — outcomes that are the opposite of what rail liberalisation is supposed to achieve.

Which Cities and Passengers Are Most at Risk

The study does not name every affected city, but the concern centres on mid-sized cities that currently benefit from direct long-distance services subsidised, in effect, by the profitable trunk routes. Cities in eastern Germany, as well as regional hubs that are not on the main high-speed corridors, are considered most vulnerable.

For expats, this matters in practical terms. Many international workers and families are spread across Germany — living in one city, working in another, or travelling regularly to airports. A loss of direct connections means more transfers, higher chance of missing connections, and longer overall travel times. It can also make certain cities less attractive for employers trying to recruit internationally.

What This Means for the German Rail Market

Germany's long-distance rail market has been partially open to competition for some time, but Deutsche Bahn has remained the dominant player. Moves toward fuller liberalisation are part of broader EU transport policy, and pressure to open the market further has been growing. Proponents argue competition lowers prices and improves service quality. Critics, including the EVG, argue that without careful regulation, it fragments the network and hurts passengers in less profitable areas.

The German government and the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) will ultimately decide how rail competition is structured. The EVG is using this study to push for regulatory safeguards — including rules that would require any operator benefiting from the network to also serve less profitable routes, a concept known as public service obligations.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will train prices go down if there is more competition?

Possibly on the busiest routes, but not necessarily everywhere. If a competitor focuses on high-demand corridors, prices on those specific routes could drop due to competition. However, passengers in smaller cities or on less popular routes might see no benefit — and could even face higher prices or reduced services if Deutsche Bahn pulls back. There is no guarantee of across-the-board price reductions.

Should I be worried about my regular train route?

If you travel regularly between major cities like Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt, or Munich, your route is unlikely to be cut — these are exactly the routes that competitors find attractive. If you commute from or to a smaller or mid-sized city, it is worth monitoring developments, especially if your connection currently requires no transfer. No changes have been announced yet; this is a warning about a possible future scenario.

When could these changes happen?

No timeline has been set. The EVG study is a forward-looking analysis intended to influence policy debates, not an announcement of imminent service cuts. Any significant changes to long-distance rail competition would require regulatory decisions and likely take several years to implement.

Conclusion and Next Steps

For now, Germany's long-distance rail network remains as it is, and no route cuts have been confirmed. But the EVG's warning is a reminder that the structure of the rail market has real consequences for everyday passengers — including the millions of expats who depend on trains for work and life in Germany.

If you rely on a specific long-distance connection, it is worth staying informed about developments in German rail policy. Following Deutsche Bahn's official announcements and checking the Federal Network Agency's updates will give you the earliest notice of any changes. For now, book your tickets as usual — but keep this debate on your radar.

Source: The Local